Risk-to-cash path
Illustrative severity
Portfolio method · risk propagation
Risk matters when you can trace it into cash.
This is a mechanism map, not a risk score. Select a risk and follow the path from the operational trigger through cash flow, debt coverage and equity value.
Why this matters
A risk register is not enough for a financing decision.
The useful question is where the risk enters the cash waterfall, which period is affected, who contractually owns it, and whether the mitigation restores cash certainty or merely moves the problem elsewhere.
That is why the same headline risk can have a very different effect on debt sizing, covenant headroom or sponsor returns depending on the PPA, security package, financing currency and construction obligations.
Apply it to a live project
Need the risk map tied to your model or term sheet?
The next step is to link the project-specific risk allocation to revenue, CFADS, debt service and returns.