Working tools

Three jobs: screen, reverse, negotiate.

These are public working papers, not software products. Each one answers a narrow project-finance question, states what it cannot answer, and shows where judgement has to take over from arithmetic.

01 · SCREEN

Where does the case come under pressure?

Use this before opening a full model or sharing confidential files.

Bankability Pressure Test

Where is this project most likely to break first?

Run the working note →
Best use
Early pressure-testing of tariff, CAPEX, leverage, debt terms and sponsor-return thresholds.
Does not test
PPA protections, payment security, tax, reserves, sculpting, construction timing or lender-specific covenants.
Felix's read
Useful when the team needs to know whether the first conversation should be about revenue, cost, debt structure or sponsor economics.

DSCR & Debt Capacity

How much level debt service can this CFADS support?

Open DSCR screen →
Best use
A fast annual coverage and level-debt-service capacity check.
Does not test
Debt sculpting, reserve accounts, repayment profile, tax or period-specific volatility.
Felix's read
Use it as a boundary check. A comfortable annual ratio can still hide weak period coverage or payment timing.
02 · REVERSE

What must the project support?

Work backwards from the financing threshold rather than admiring the output the model already gives you.

Reverse Project Finance

What tariff, CAPEX, debt quantum or tenor clears the screen?

Solve backwards →
Best use
Negotiation boundaries, affordability questions and early financing structure discussions.
Does not test
Whether the mathematically sufficient change is commercially available or contractually achievable.
Felix's read
The useful answer is not only "8.2 cents". It is whether price is truly the controlling threshold and whether another lever is more realistic.
03 · NEGOTIATE

Where is negotiation effort most likely to matter?

Separate terms that move economics from terms that matter because the risk allocation will not finance.

Term Sheet Impact

Which financing term is worth negotiating hardest?

Build negotiation board →
Best use
First-pass comparison of debt pricing, tenor, gearing and PPA-price movement.
Does not test
Payment security, termination, curtailment, security package and covenant acceptability.
Felix's read
Economic impact and negotiability are different questions. A term can be valuable but impossible to win.

PPA & Wheeling Savings

Does the private-power structure still save money after network and residual supply costs?

Open PPA screen →
Best use
Simple grid-versus-wheeled-supply commercial comparison.
Does not test
Credit support, balancing, profile mismatch, legal structure, curtailment or settlement risk.
Felix's read
The headline discount is not the deal. The shape, charges, settlement and risk allocation decide what survives into cash.

Where public logic stops

Once timing, contracts or risk allocation drive the answer, move into the project.

The public tools deliberately use transparent deterministic mechanics. The paid work adds period cash flows, debt sculpting, tax, reserves, construction, degradation, payment timing, PPA protections, lender covenants and the feasibility of each proposed change.

See the Risk-to-Cash graph or view the Decision Delta review sheet.

Next step

When a public screen changes the question, test Project Fit.

The fit check routes the project to the smallest useful next scope.

CHECK PROJECT FITSEND PROJECT BRIEF